Enjoyable truth: When you fill out an NCAA Event bracket and don’t choose a minimum of one 12-over-5 upset, your submission is robotically thrown out. True story.
OK, that is not truly a real story. However for those who’re not selecting a 12-over-5, why are you even filling out a bracket? It’s a double-digit upset, which is enjoyable, and historical past exhibits us there’s a fairly darn good probability a minimum of one 12 seed goes to be enjoying a minimum of two video games.
This is an entire breakdown of the historical past of 12 vs. 5 matchups within the NCAA Event, together with essentially the most memorable upsets and essential numbers to know whereas filling out your March Insanity bracket.
Historical past of 12 seed vs. 5 seed upsets in NCAA Event
There actually is one thing magical about these 12-5 video games. Take into consideration this: Up to now 40 years, there have been 50 12-over-5 upsets, and on the identical time there have solely been 52 11-over-6 wins and 55 10-over-7 outcomes. Keep in mind, groups seeded on the No. 5 seed line are typically ranked within the prime 20 within the polls, whereas groups on the 7 seed line are barely within the “additionally receiving votes” class, and but the 5 seeds lose virtually as a lot because the 7 seeds.
And as a substitute of telling you yearly there’s been a 12-over-5 upset, it’s a lot — MUCH — simpler to simply checklist the years it didn’t occur: 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018. That’s it, 5 years. That’s your entire checklist.
What number of occasions have a minimum of two No. 12 seeds received? Let’s look: 1990, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2009. 2012, 2013, 2014, 2019. That’s 13, for those who didn’t really feel like counting. Historical past exhibits us it’s greater than TWICE as more likely to have a minimum of two 12 seeds win than to have zero 12 seeds win.
However wait, there’s extra!
Right here’s a listing of the years the place THREE 12 seeds beat a 5 seed: 2002, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2019. Yep, 5 occasions. So previously 40 years, we’ve seen as a few years with three 12 seeds successful video games as we’ve seen zero 12 seeds successful video games. Heck, within the 2013-14 tournaments, No. 12 seeds went 6-2 towards No. 5 seeds.
So, y’know, choose a minimum of one 12-over-5 upset, people.
|12 months||End result||Rating|
|1985||Kentucky def. Washington||66-58|
|1986||DePaul def. Virginia||72-68|
|1987||Wyoming def. Virginia||64-60|
|1989||DePaul def. Memphis State||66-63|
|1990||Dayton def. Illinois||88-86|
|1990||Ball State def. Oregon State||54-53|
|1991||Jap Michigan def. Mississippi State||76-56|
|1992||New Mexico State def. DePaul||81-73|
|1993||George Washington def. New Mexico||82-68|
|1994||UW-Inexperienced Bay def. California||61-57|
|1994||Tulsa def. UCLA||112-102|
|1995||Miami (Ohio) def. Arizona||71-62|
|1996||Drexel def. Memphis||75-63|
|1996||Arkansas def. Penn State||86-80|
|1997||Faculty of Charleston def. Maryland||75-66|
|1998||Florida State def. TCU||96-87|
|1999||Detroit def. UCLA||56-53|
|1999||Missouri State def. TCU||96-87|
|2001||Utah State def. Ohio State||77-68 (OT)|
|2001||Gonzaga def. Virginia||86-85|
|2002||Tulsa def. Marquette||71-69|
|2002||Missouri def. Miami (Fla.)||93-80|
|2002||Creighton def. Florida||83-82 (2OT)|
|2003||Butler def. Mississippi State||47-46|
|2004||Pacific def. Windfall||66-58|
|2005||Milwaukee def. Alabama||83-73|
|2006||Montana def. Nevada||87-79|
|2006||Texas A&M def. Syracuse||66-58|
|2008||Villanova def. Clemson||75-69|
|2008||Western Kentucky def. Drake||101-99 (OT)|
|2009||Wisconsin def. Florida State||61-59 (OT)|
|2009||Arizona def. Utah||84-71|
|2009||Western Kentucky def. Illinois||76-72|
|2010||Cornell def. Temple||78-65|
|2011||Richmond def. Vanderbilt||69-66|
|2012||South Florida def. Temple||58-44|
|2012||VCU def. Wichita State||62-59|
|2013||Ole Miss def. Wisconsin||57-46|
|2013||California def. UNLV||64-61|
|2013||Oregon def. Oklahoma State||68-55|
|2014||Harvard def. Cincinnati||61-57|
|2014||North Dakota State def. Oklahoma||80-75 (OT)|
|2014||Stephen F. Austin def. VCU||77-75 (OT)|
|2016||Little Rock def. Purdue||85-83 (2OT)|
|2016||Yale def. Baylor||79-75|
|2017||Center Tennessee def. Minnesota||81-72|
|2019||Oregon def. Wisconsin||72-54|
|2019||Liberty def. Mississippi St.||80-76|
|2019||Murray St. def. Marquette||83-64|
12 seeds vs. 5 seeds by the numbers
- 50-90: Report for 12 seeds vs. No. 5 seeds
- 35.7 p.c: Total successful proportion for 12 seeds since 1985
- 20: Largest margin of victory for a 12 seed; Jap Michigan over Mississippi State (76-56)
- 1. Smallest margin of victory for a 12 seed; 4 occasions, first by Ball State over Oregon State (54-53)
- 7: Variety of occasions a 12 seed has received in extra time
- 2: Variety of occasions a 12 seed has received in double extra time
- 1: Buzzer-beater wins for 12 seeds: Western Kentucky over Drake (101-99)
- 21: 12 seeds to succeed in the Candy 16
- 1: 12 seeds to succeed in the Elite Eight
Has a 12 seed ever received March Insanity?
No, a 12 seed has by no means received the NCAA Event, however you must hold the concept within the “not very doubtless however not not possible” class. Keep in mind, there have been a number of 11 seeds to crash the Last 4, and loopy issues can occur in a 40-minute basketball recreation.
Of the 21 12 seeds to succeed in the Candy 16, solely the 2002 Missouri Tigers truly received that Candy 16 contest to advance to the Elite Eight. That was a gifted however inconsistent group headlined by Kareem Rush, the junior with the sleek left-handed shot, with sophomores Rickey Paulding and Arthur Johnson and shot-happy senior Clarence Gilbert.
The Tigers knocked off Miami (Fla.) within the opener, then cruised previous 4-seed Ohio State by 16 within the second spherical. As a substitute of dealing with the No. 1 seed within the Candy 16, they performed No. eight UCLA; the Bruins had upended Cincinnati in double extra time. Mizzou cruised previous UCLA, too, successful 82-73. Within the Elite Eight recreation towards No. 2 Oklahoma — a Massive 12 rival that was 34-5 coming into the sport and had crushed the Tigers by 13 factors of their lone regular-season matchup — Mizzou hung powerful regardless of foul bother and Gilbert’s taking pictures woes (he completed the sport 1-for-16 from the sector).
The Tigers reduce Oklahoma’s result in three factors at 70-67 with below three minutes left, however by no means bought any nearer in an 81-75 loss.
Lowest seed to win the NCAA Event
Because the match expanded to 64 groups in 1985, we’ve seen 5 double-digit seeds attain the Last 4:
- 11 seed LSU in 1986
- 11 seed George Mason in 2006
- 11 seed VCU in 2011
- 10 seed Syracuse in 2016
- 11 seed Loyola Chicago in 2018
All 4 misplaced earlier than reaching the title recreation. Solely 4 groups seeded decrease than the No. three seed line have ever received the nationwide title: one Four seed (Arizona in 1997), one 6 seed (Kansas in 1988), one seven seed (UConn in 2014) and one eight seed (Villanova in 1985). No 5 seed has ever received. The Villanova story is the stuff of legend; a plucky, methodical eight seed that reached the title recreation by grinding out a collection of slender wins (three by three factors or fewer) and dealing with off towards the may Georgetown Hoyas within the championship recreation.
It’s thought of by some as the largest upset in NCAA Event historical past. However right here’s the factor: It makes for an excellent David and Goliath story, however Villanova was fairly darn good. Within the 1985 and 1986 NBA Drafts, three starters from that 1985 group went within the prime 30 picks (Ed Pinckney at 10 and Dwayne McClain at 27 in 1985 and Harold Pressley at 17 in 1986; Gary McLain went within the seventh spherical in 1985). Think about that Villanova had already performed Georgetown powerful TWICE that 12 months — losses by solely two factors and 7 factors — and, sorry, it would not make for a top-five all-time upset.
It does, although, make for a fairly cool championship story.