June 24, 2024

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EXCLUSIVE: Sources tell us that advance tickets sales for the Taylor Swift: Eras Tour concert movie have reached $65M-plus. That’s a figure comprised of the top three U.S. circuits –AMC, Regal and Cinemark–, Canada’s Cineplex and Mexico’s Cinépolis, we hear.

That figure–a month before opening– already bests the U.S./Canada advance ticket sales of mega-superhero movies like Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($60M) and The Batman ($42M); those numbers clocked just prior to their respective opening dates. Eras Tour still trails the pandemic presales record of Spider-Man: No Way Home which banked $120M before its opening day.

Many distribution sources tell us that they would not be shocked by a $100M opening for the Eras Tour. The question is how front-loaded is the movie given the tendency of female moviegoers to come in packs to initial showtimes. Also, like Barbie, is there repeat business? Still if this movie does north of $70M, it’s nothing to be ashamed about for a concert film. Already the turnout of the Swifties are set to bury the entire domestic runs of previous concert movies like Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert ($65.2M final in 2008), Michael Jackson’s This Is It ($72M in 2009) and Justin Bieber: Never Say Never ($73M).

As we’ve reported several studios spotted a Marvel-sized tsunami at the fall box office and moved out of the way of the AMC-distributed concert film, which kicks off on Oct. 13 (with previews on Oct. 12). The concert film is scheduled to play four weekends in a row (not weekdays), but including Tuesday, Halloween night. Any rival features that lose showtimes on the weekend, hope to make that time up during the week when Swift is off-screen.

As we reported out of TIFF, SAG Chief Negotiator and National Executive Director, Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, said that Eras Tour received a SAG-AFTRA interim agreement, which means Swift can feasibly promote the movie. What stunts does she have planned? Mum is still the word as to whether she participates in some live Q&A (ala the Talking Heads reunion out of TIFF for the 40th anniversary of A24’s Stop Making Sense which grossed over $640K at 165 Imax locations; the larger format exhibitor’s best live event ever), or appears at movie theaters on opening weekend.

As my mother-in-law says, “There’s no such thing as a coincidence”: Swift isn’t currently on tour and she doesn’t resume live shows of Eras until Nov. 9 in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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