As S&P approaches 5,000, this one trend has been unwavering
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It’s been a bumpy road from 4,000 to 5,000, but the overall trend stays with big cap tech. Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill, launched the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS), in April 2023, to some ridicule, as many felt it was far too concentrated to make a successful ETF. Talk about timing: It launched just as the S & P 500 was recovering from the banking crisis, and MAGS has been one of the star ETF performers of the last year. Mazza will be coming to the Exchange ETF conference in Miami Beach this weekend with one of the most successful ETFs of 2023. A bumpy road from 4,000 to 5,000 The S & P 500 had been comfortably over 4,000 from mid-2021 into mid-2022, when rising rates pushed the broad index below 4,000. It was not until the end of March 2023, after the banking crisis, that the S & P pushed over 4,000 and stayed there, despite some drama in the late summer around higher interest rates that brought a nearly 10% drop in the S & P from July to October last year. On Thursday morning, the benchmark was hovering near the 5,000 milestone . Despite a rocky road toward 5,000, the overall trend has been unmistakable: while several sectors outside of tech have contributed to the advance, the main movers of the rally remain big cap tech, specifically the much-maligned “Magnificent Seven.” Sectors (since end of March 2023) Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) up 51% S & P 500 up 24% Technology up 37% (Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, AMD) Communication Services up 33% (Alphabet, Meta) Consumer Discretionary up 22% (Amazon, Tesla) The other sectors have been mixed in performance, but all are laggards: Sectors (since end of March 2023) Industrials up 16% Banks up 17% Health Care up 12% Consumer Staples flat Energy up 1% Broadening of market? Right in theory At the beginning of the year, much red ink was spilled arguing that the broadening out of the market was coming soon, and that equal-weight methodologies would outperform, as well as small- and mid-caps. This was another idea that was correct in terms of theory (mean-reversion should help equal weight and small caps) but has been wrong in practice. All attempts at equal-weight — even equal-weight technology! — has underperformed. This is true not just this year, but since the S & P went over 4,000 at the end of March, as has international investing. Sectors (since end of March 2023) Equal Weight Technology (RSPT) up 22% Equal Weight S & P 500 (RSP) up 11% S & P Midcap up 3% S & P Small Cap up 8% All-World, ex-U.S. (ACWX) up 4% Bottom line: If you own a technology ETF (like QQQ ), you are happy. If you own the S & P 500, which has become tech-dominant, you are happy. If you own small-caps, mid-caps, equal weight outside of tech, if you own international — in short, if you own a properly well-diversified portfolio — you have been underperforming for almost a year. Note: Dave Mazza from Roundhill will be on ETF Edge from Miami Beach on Monday. ETFEdge.cnbc.com
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