May 28, 2024


Crowds walk below neon signs on Nanjing Road. The street is the main shopping district of the city and one of the world’s busiest shopping districts.

Nikada | E+ | Getty Images

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly raised its global growth forecast, saying the economy had proven “surprisingly resilient” despite inflationary pressures and monetary policy shifts.

The IMF now expects global growth of 3.2% in 2024, up by a modest 0.1 percentage point from its earlier January forecast, and in line with the growth projection for 2023. Growth is then expected to expand at the same pace of 3.2% in 2025.

The IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the findings suggest the global economy is heading for a “soft landing,” following a string of economic crises, and that the risks to the outlook were now broadly balanced.

“Despite gloomy predictions, the global economy remains remarkably resilient, with steady growth and inflation slowing almost as quickly as it rose,” he said in a blog post.

Growth is set to be led by advanced economies, with the U.S. already exceeding its pre-Covid-19 pandemic trend and with the euro zone showing strong signs of recovery. But dimmer prospects in China and other large emerging market economies could weigh on global trade partners, the report said.

China among key downside risks

China, whose economy remains weakened by a downturn in its property market, was cited among a series of potential downside risks facing the global economy. Also included were price spikes prompted by geopolitical concerns, trade tensions, a divergence in disinflation paths among major economies and prolonged high interest rates.

To the upside, looser fiscal policy, falling inflation and advancements in artificial intelligence were cited as potential growth drivers.

Central banks are now being closely watched for a signal on the future path of inflation, with opinion diverging on either side of the Atlantic as to when the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will cut rates. Some analysts have recently forecast a possible Fed rate hike as stubborn inflation and rising Middle East tensions weigh on economic sentiment.

The IMF said it sees global headline inflation falling from an annual average of 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies.

“As the global economy approaches a soft landing, the near-term priority for central banks is to ensure that inflation touches down smoothly, by neither easing policies prematurely nor delaying too long and causing target undershoots,” Gourinchas said.

“At the same time, as central banks take a less restrictive stance, a renewed focus on implementing medium-term fiscal consolidation to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and priority investments, and to ensure debt sustainability, is in order,” he added.

Despite the rosier outlook of Tuesday, global growth remains low by historic standards, owing in part to weak productivity growth and increasing geopolitical fragmentation. The IMF’s five-year forecast sees global growth at 3.1%, its lowest level in decades.


Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Batman138 Bro138 Dolar138 Gas138 Gudang138 Hoki99 Ligaciputra Panen77 Zeus138 Kilat77 Planet88 Gaspol168 Sikat88 Rupiah138 Garuda138 Gacor77 Roma77 Sensa138 Panen138 Slot138 Gaco88 Elanggame Candy99 Cair77 Max7 Best188 Space77 Sky77 Luxury777 Maxwin138 Bosswin168 Cocol88 Slot5000 Babe138 Luxury138 Jet77 Bonanza138 Bos88 Aquaslot Taktik88 Lord88 Indobet Slot69 Paus138 Tiktok88 Panengg Bingo4d Stars77 77dragon Warung168 Receh88 Online138 Tambang88 Asia77 Klik4d Bdslot88 Gajah138 Bigwin138 Markas138 Yuk69 Emas168 Key4d Harta138  Gopek178 Imbaslot Imbajp Deluna4d Luxury333 Pentaslot Luxury111 Cair77 Gboslot Pandora188 Olxtoto Slotvip Eslot Kuy138 Imbagacor Bimabet