June 13, 2024


People shop in a supermarket in the Manhattan borough of New York city on January 27, 2024.

Charly Triballeau | AFP | Getty Images

The prices consumers pay in the marketplace rose at an even slower pace than originally reported, according to closely watched revisions the government released Friday.

Updates to the consumer price index showed that the broad basket of goods and services measured increased 0.2% on the month, less than the originally reported 0.3%, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

While the change is only modest, it helped confirm that inflation was moderating as 2023 ended, giving more leeway to the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates later this year.

The revisions are done as a matter of course for the BLS, but garnered extra attention this year after the market reacted sharply to last year’s changes. Indications that inflation in 2022 rose more than anticipated drove Treasury yields higher and sparked worry from investors that the Fed might keep monetary policy more restrictive.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, in particular, had called attention to the 2022 revisions, sparking market attention for the latest round.

Excluding food and energy, the so-called core CPI increased 0.3% for the month, the same as originally reported. Fed policymakers tend to focus more on core measures as they provide a better indication of long-run movements in inflation.

Also, the headline November reading was revised higher, up 0.2% versus the initial 0.1% estimate.

In aggregate, the revisions indicate that headline CPI accelerated at a 2.7% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, down 0.1 percentage point from the initially stated figures, according to Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Further out, the second-half revisions put CPI higher — by 0.003 percentage point, according to Goldman Sachs calculations.

The revisions amounted to “a damp squib,” said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, though they could exert some influence on the Fed.

“Since some Fed officials were apparently worried about a repeat of last year — when the revision pushed up the monthly changes in core prices in the final few months of last year — the lack of any meaningful change this year, at the margin at least, supports an earlier May rate cut,” Ashworth added.

The Fed prioritizes the personal consumption expenditures price index as its main inflation gauge. CPI readings feed into the Commerce Department’s PCE calculation. The difference between the two gauges is essentially that the CPI reflects what items cost while the PCE adjusts for what consumers actually buy, accounting for changes in behavior when prices rise and fall.

Futures market pricing was little changed after the data release.

Traders still largely expect the Fed to hold its benchmark overnight borrowing rate steady when it next meets in March, then cut in May, to be followed by four more quarter percentage point reductions by the end of the year, according to CME Group projections.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:


Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Batman138 Bro138 Dolar138 Gas138 Gudang138 Hoki99 Ligaciputra Panen77 Zeus138 Kilat77 Planet88 Gaspol168 Sikat88 Rupiah138 Garuda138 Gacor77 Roma77 Sensa138 Panen138 Slot138 Gaco88 Elanggame Candy99 Cair77 Max7 Best188 Space77 Sky77 Luxury777 Maxwin138 Bosswin168 Cocol88 Slot5000 Babe138 Luxury138 Jet77 Bonanza138 Bos88 Aquaslot Taktik88 Lord88 Indobet Slot69 Paus138 Tiktok88 Panengg Bingo4d Stars77 77dragon Warung168 Receh88 Online138 Tambang88 Asia77 Klik4d Bdslot88 Gajah138 Bigwin138 Markas138 Yuk69 Emas168 Key4d Harta138  Gopek178 Imbaslot Imbajp Deluna4d Luxury333 Pentaslot Luxury111 Cair77 Gboslot Pandora188 Olxtoto Slotvip Eslot Kuy138 Imbagacor Bimabet